{"id":103169,"date":"2022-07-21T19:49:44","date_gmt":"2022-07-21T23:49:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedailygouge.com\/?p=103169"},"modified":"2022-07-21T19:49:50","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T23:49:50","slug":"the-daily-gouge-archive-wednesday-july-20th-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thedailygouge.com\/?p=103169","title":{"rendered":"The Daily Gouge Archive, Wednesday, July 20th, 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s Wednesday, July 20th, 2022…but before we begin, writing at The Corner<\/em>, Jim Geraghty wonders…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Just How Stable Is China Right Now<\/span><\/a>?<\/span><\/h1>\n

 <\/p>\n

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This is more\u00a0Jimmy Quinn\u2019s territory<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/span>, but I look at recent headlines like…<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cChinese Homebuyers Across 22 Cities Refuse to Pay Mortgages<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/span><\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cChina tries to stem growing anger over frozen bank deposits<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/span><\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cXi Visits Xinjiang Region After Extended Absence from Public Eye<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/span>\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cChina\u2019s economy shrinks 2.6% during virus shutdowns<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/span>\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cChina Is Giving Off Strong Lehman Brothers Vibes<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/span>\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cChina will fare the worst if stagflation strikes, says S&P Global Ratings<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/span>\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cChina Sees Most Covid Cases Since May as Lockdowns Spread<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cShanghai fears new lockdown as millions test for Covid amid sweltering heat<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/span>\u201d<\/p>\n

…and wonder just how stable the Chinese economy and Chinese government are these days. The Chinese government, like all authoritarian regimes, requires a narrative of universal competence and wisdom in its leaders, which means the regime can never openly admit a mistake.<\/span> Everything is always<\/em><\/span> going according to the five-year plan, the state is always<\/em><\/span> right, the leaders are always<\/em><\/span> all-knowing and all-seeing, and any corruption, failures or incompetence that gets exposed is always<\/em><\/span> isolated incidents involving rogue low-level employees.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

And lately those narratives are crashing into higher and higher piles of counterevidence.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Whatever is happening in China, it seems to be pointing to new levels of economic, social, and political turbulence. Maybe the Chinese economy is a \u201ctoo big to fail\u201d colossus, with too much built-up momentum to be derailed for long.<\/span> Or maybe the whole thing is a house of cards; reliable and verifiable economic data have always been hard to find in China.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A few days ago,\u00a0former Pentagon strategist\u00a0Elbridge Colby\u00a0shared an unnerving thread<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/span>\u00a0laying out why he is \u201cmore and more alarmed about a PRC invasion of Taiwan.\u201d<\/span> You should read the whole thing, but the short version is that Colby sees the motive, means, and opportunity aligning for China. But the window of opportunity may be closing in the long term, as U.S. defense upgrades come on line and an anti-China defensive alliance takes hold in the Pacific.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

It is possible that economic and domestic instability make Xi Jinping less likely to pull the trigger on an invasion of Taiwan; Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine is demonstrating that the conquest of a long-coveted neighbor can be more difficult \u2014 a lot bloodier and messier and more geopolitically isolating \u2014 than expected. If your country is facing a tall stack of worsening problems, a major war against a foe determined to resist is likely to just make everything worse.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

But then again, a lot of autocrats can\u2019t distinguish between their personal desires and the national interest. There\u2019s always the chance that Xi Jinping looks at that tall stack of worsening problems and decides an unprovoked, world-altering war of aggression is just the right tool to jump-start Chinese nationalism and make everything all better.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Here’s the juice: To borrow a phrase from our Clueless Leader…<\/strong><\/p>\n